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Showing posts with label Inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Inflation. Show all posts

Saturday, 17 October 2015

Saturday, October 17, 2015 Posted by Jake No comments Labels: , , , , , , , , ,
"the richest are rich not because they are gaming the system but – by and large – because they’re very talented, took risks and worked their guts out."
At least, that's what an article in the Spectator magazine would have us believe.

No doubt many of the richest are very talented, take risks, and work their guts out. But 'richest' is a relative thing: to be 'richest' you have to be more rich than other rich people, who themselves have to be richer than not rich people. By correlating 'richest' with 'talent' and 'hard work' the Spectator, and they are not alone, suggests - by and large - the richest are more talented and hard working than everyone else.

So is talent and hard work the real reason - by and large - for richness? Whether the richest bankers have more talent, take greater risks and work their guts out so very much more than a professional soldier, scientist, or surgeon is open to a scrutiny we won't conduct in this particular post. 

In any case Free Marketeers, among the greatest advocates of high pay, would say none of that talent, risk and guts stuff matters. Free Marketeers would say Merit doesn't define Pay, Pay defines Merit. The Free Market, they assert, may not be infallible but it quickly corrects itself. A Free Marketeer would assert if you are regularly paid a lot over the medium term - i.e. not just a spot of luck with the National Lottery - then you must be meritorious. 

Is that actually true? Or has the Market for Pay been captured by those being paid the most to ensure they continue to be paid the most? Has the Free Market in executive pay become a Phoney Market?
Consider top executives of companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. The Free Market puts a value on their companies by pricing the shares. In a large and liquid market, such as the FTSE100, the price set is a genuine attempt by investors to make themselves richer. Driven by selfish motives these investors' valuation of companies is an honest one. 

On the other hand, the pay of the top executives in these companies is set by their Remuneration Committees. Committees which to a large degree are made up of other top executives who themselves depend on their own Remuneration Committees for their pay. According to a report by the TUC, "A Culture of Excess", there is a huge cross-dependency of top executives setting one another's pay:

"Remuneration committee members are drawn from a narrow constituency, consisting mainly of other board members. In 2014, 246 out of 383 FTSE 100 remuneration committee members (64 per cent) held at least one other position on another board. Over a third of FTSE 100 companies have an executive director from another company on their remuneration committee. Two thirds of FTSE remuneration committees share one member with another remuneration committee from the FTSE 100."

We can see how executive pay has ramped up from a report, "How to make high pay fairer", published in July 2014 by the High Pay Centre think tank. The report stated:

"Typical annual pay for a FTSE 100 CEO has risen from around £100,000-£200,000 in the early 1980s to just over £1 million at the turn of the 21st century to £4.3 million in 2012.1 This represented a leap from around 20 times the pay of the average UK worker in the 1980s to 60 times in 1998, to 160 times in 2012 (the most recent year for which full figures are available)."



Contrast this rocketing pay with the declining value placed by the Free Market on companies traded on the London Stock Exchange. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) provides some handy graphs to help us out here:

1) In nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation) the value of the FTSE All Share in 2014 (which had done better than the FTSE100) was over 13 times higher than the 1980 level, while FTSE100 CEO pay has gone up over 28 times in nominal terms:

2) However:
a) The inflation adjusted values show the total value of the market in 2014 is well below its value in 2000.
b) Compared to the UK GDP, the value of the stock market is well below what it was in the 1990s.


Comparing this with the bosses' multiple of average pay (effectively boss pay indexed to average pay), we see even as the Remuneration Committees value themselves more, the Free Market values their companies less.

Why is this important? Two of the reasons are:

1) It is said that burgeoning top pay does not hold down bottom pay. That may be true if the question is simply diversion of bottom pay into top pay packets. 
At Barclays, a favourite dartboard of high pay protesters, it wouldn't make much of a difference to it's lowly employees by taking a chunk out of top pay.

But top pay is justified by profits. And according to Gavyn Davies, economist and hedge fund manager and former chairman of the BBC, two thirds of company profits come from holding down bottom pay.


2) As those at the top, who direct the government of Britain, no longer need public services they don’t feel the pain when those  services are cut. Those who can afford private health, private education, and those who don’t live in areas that need strong policing, don’t notice when what they don’t need is not there.

And I suppose it would be churlish of me to mention the taxes of the 1% contribute to the welfare state that allows them to keep their staff on low wages knowing they will be topped-up with benefits, and keeps their staff healthy and educated enough to turn up to work without having to pay them enough to buy those services themselves. 

Saturday, 2 May 2015

Saturday, May 02, 2015 Posted by Jake No comments Labels: , , , , , ,
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published in March 2015 show:

1) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeded the pre-recession peak in the summer of 2013. By the end of 2014 GDP was 4% above the pre-crash peak in 2007. Yay :)

2) However, much of this growth came from growth in population.GDP per person was actually 1% lower than the pre-crash peak. Oops!

3) Net National Disposable Income, which is the GDP left once the "Rest of the World" has taken its share, is 4% below the pre-crash peak! Oh dear :(

The Rest of the World owns a large chunk of the assets in Britain, including over half the shares on the UK stock exchange. Once they have taken their share, the ONS figures shows UK resident's share of GDP has hardly changed in the last 5 years.
A consequence of the "low wage recovery": not much to show for 5 years of austerity for hard working ripped-off Britons.

We go into greater detail in another post, >>click here<<

Tuesday, 3 February 2015

Tuesday, February 03, 2015 Posted by Hari No comments Labels: , , , , ,

SOURCE DAILY MAIL: Education spending to be cut in real terms after the election. Cameron admits 'difficult decision' will be hard for schools
David Cameron came under attack yesterday over his promise to protect funding for schools after it emerged his plans would see spending per pupil fall in real terms. Speaking at a school in Enfield, North London, yesterday, Mr Cameron made his pledge not to cut the funding per child because good schools ‘need money’. But his pledge that the amount of funding per pupil would be ring-fenced in the next Parliament started to unravel as he admitted spending would not increase in line with inflation. By the end of the next Parliament, this would mean a cut in real terms of around 7 per cent to the schools budget for children aged between five and 16, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Mr Cameron said the Government ‘won’t tolerate failure’ and would raise achievement in 3,500 schools rated ‘requires improvement’ by the watchdog Ofsted. He said every secondary school in this category would be expected to become an academy. Russell Hobby, leader of the National Association of Head Teachers, attacked the proposals as ‘ill informed’ and a decision to ‘declare war on schools’.

Tuesday, 18 November 2014

Tuesday, 26 August 2014

Tuesday, August 26, 2014 Posted by Hari 1 comment Labels: , , , ,

Wednesday, 20 August 2014

Wednesday, August 20, 2014 Posted by Hari No comments Labels: , , , ,
Can KJ, Chris and Fee find a silver lining?...

Saturday, 19 April 2014

Saturday, April 19, 2014 Posted by Jake No comments Labels: , , , , , , , ,
In April 2014, just before Easter, newspapers including the Express and the Telegraph reported:

“March’s UK inflation figures suggest that the six-year squeeze on real earnings is finally over”

For the first time in 4 years prices were not rising faster than wages. Were they right about the squeeze being over?

Actually, in the 5 years upto March 2014 price rises have outstripped wages in 57 months out of 60.



This has left us on average 8% worse off than 5 years ago. 




Friday, 18 April 2014

Friday, April 18, 2014 Posted by Hari 1 comment Labels: , , , , ,
KJ and Chris get the answer from someone who obviously knows...

Saturday, 5 April 2014

Saturday, April 05, 2014 Posted by Jake No comments Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,
It's the oldest trick in the book. Convince your competitor to lower his guard, and then biff him.  

Adam Smith, the capitalist icon, believed everyone scuffling selfishly for their own benefit would result in an ‘invisible hand’ distributing a nation’s wealth pretty fairly. 

Smith’s advice was based on the reality that you can’t trust anybody else to pull for your benefit. You can only really trust people who are pulling in the same direction as you. And any student of tug-of-war will know it is all much less strenuous if the other side simply drops the rope and stops pulling.



Graphs from the “Budget 2014: Background Briefing”, produced by Parliament's impartial House of Commons Library, show how ordinary Britons have been tricked into dropping the rope in the great economic tug-of-war. It also shows how those who want Britain to be a more prosperous place, whether of the left or of the right, should stiffen up and grab the rope again.


From Budget 2014: Background Briefing
The Budget Briefing report shows between 2007 and 2014 average earnings have dropped more than 12% in real terms. The same graph shows that household consumption (i.e. spending) has almost returned to its peak level. Consumption that has been helped by household debt rising to record levels according to a report in November 2013 by Iain Duncan Smith's "Centre for Social Justice".

A separate graph using ONS data shows that the fall in wages is not a short term effect of the recession triggered by the banking crash. In the decades since the 1960's the share of GDP paid to employees has dropped from around 60% down to around 54%.

Saturday, 15 March 2014

Saturday, March 15, 2014 Posted by Jake 1 comment Labels: , , , , , , , , ,
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA, previously the FSA) and OFGEM are the pantomime twins of regulation in Britain: Tweedle-dumb and Tweedle-dumber. 

The FCA waving its Vorple Sword is regarded by the banks as no more threatening than a cheer-leader wielding a furry pom-pom. The litany of bankers' interest rate rigging; pension annuity scams; insurance scams etc. goes on with no sign of any banker swapping his pure wool pinstripe suit for an acrylic stripey prison jersey.

At least the FCA can claim it is getting tricked by different scams all the time. OFGEM, evidently the dumber of the twins (it must be truly mortifying to be dumber than the FCA!), has managed to be deceived for years by one central fib: the soaring wholesale price of energy. 

For years energy companies have blamed consumer price hikes on World energy markets. Data published by OFGEM in October 2013 (why did it take them so long to do something so obvious?), and by NPower in January 2014 (why did they do it at all?) show wholesale prices simply have not been shooting up.

Combining this data from OFGEM and NPower, and retail prices from Consumer Futures reveal:
 
a) Using NPower's figures (in real terms) since 2007, customer bills have increased by 18% in 2013, and predict a 40% increase by 2020, while wholesale costs have actually fallen. In this NPower report instead of blaming wholesale prices NPower blames everything else except profits:

Friday, 3 January 2014

Friday, January 03, 2014 Posted by Hari 2 comments Labels: , , , , , ,
Fee and KJ predict what will happen next...

Tuesday, 22 October 2013

Tuesday, October 22, 2013 Posted by Hari No comments Labels: , , , ,

Friday, 6 September 2013

Friday, September 06, 2013 Posted by Hari No comments Labels: , , , , , , ,
Chris is with one of our top CEOs...

Friday, 26 July 2013

Friday, July 26, 2013 Posted by Hari 1 comment Labels: , , , , ,
Chris tells KJ the answer...

Friday, 15 March 2013

Friday, March 15, 2013 Posted by Hari No comments Labels: , , , , ,
KJ, Chris and Fee get all confused...



Tuesday, 12 March 2013

Tuesday, March 12, 2013 Posted by Hari No comments Labels: , , , , , , , , ,
Cameron tells Justin Welby to stop meddling in things he only half understands...


Friday, 25 January 2013

Friday, January 25, 2013 Posted by Hari 4 comments Labels: , , , , ,
Can KJ change Fee's mind?..


Wednesday, 14 November 2012

Wednesday, November 14, 2012 Posted by Hari 2 comments Labels: , , , ,
Cameron grills his Energy Secretary, Ed Davey...



Sunday, 12 August 2012

Today's guest post is by Toby Lloyd, Head of Policy at the housing and homelessness charity Shelter. It explains how we can cut the £22bn spent on housing benefit. The main reason why it's that high is because of the high cost of rent caused by this country's housing bubble. If we build more homes we'll bring down the overall cost of housing, and therefore bring down the housing benefit spend. We already know we can afford to build more houses: that £22bn housing benefit spend is around twenty times more than we currently spend on building affordable homes. We'd actually end up saving money.

So why is the government pumping a further £80bn into loans, including mortgages, which will keep the housing market overpriced?

Housing charity Shelter says "Let's spend less on housing"?!

By Toby Lloyd, Head of Policy, Shelter
The news has been worryingly free of house price stories of late, forcing some papers to fill pages with minor distractions like the Olympics, Leveson and the great summer weather.
Thankfully the IMF has come to the rescue of editors everywhere, with its annual report on the UK economy suggesting that house prices still need to fall by 10-15% now-ish – and by up to 30% to get back to trend.
Inevitably, the response from some quarters will be for the Government to do something, which always comes with a price tag.
With budgets everywhere being slashed, you don’t get many charities calling for their patch to be cut. We tend to make the case for why our bit should be spared the axe.
But I reckon we should be spending far less than we currently do on housing ourselves as a nation.
Firstly, there’s the fact that we spend £22 billion a year on housing benefit – about twenty times what we spend on building affordable homes. As we’ve argued before, this is a ridiculous state of affairs – but you won’t fix it by cutting housing benefit for those who have the temerity to be unable to afford sky-high private rents.
You fix it by ensuring more people don’t need benefit just to keep a roof over their heads, which means building more affordable homes, and by making the homes we already have more affordable.

Friday, 15 June 2012

Friday, June 15, 2012 Posted by Hari No comments Labels: , , , , , , ,
As FTSE 100 bosses' pay continues to rise, Chris and his wife come to terms with growing inequality in the UK

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